Comments on: The 285% Stock Trade https://algorix.top/stocktrade/ Life Outside the Box Sat, 19 Feb 2022 21:35:45 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.2 By: Kris https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8488 Sat, 19 Feb 2022 21:35:45 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8488 Hi Tynan, has your all weather portfolio allocations changed in 2022?

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By: Etienne Le Bras https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8417 Tue, 15 Feb 2022 17:57:44 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8417 I love you Tynan

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By: Sara https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8316 Thu, 10 Feb 2022 16:37:32 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8316 In reply to Nate.

They must be pre-written or he is getting someone else to do it. There’s some truth in his voyage for lunar research.

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By: Romain https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8310 Thu, 10 Feb 2022 06:49:39 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8310 In reply to Romain.

Actually, scratch my last sentence, the call buyer would still exercise when the stock reaches at or above $10, meaning the profit is indeed capped at 66%.

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By: Romain https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8309 Thu, 10 Feb 2022 06:44:49 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8309 In reply to Cman.

Actually, since the trade he’s describing is a covered call, his theoretical profit would only be 66% (not 285%), since the profit of a covered call is capped at the strike price of $10.
Assuming he meant he bought 100 shares of NCLH, his profit on the shares would be $13 when it reaches the price of $10, plus the $638 of the short option premium, therefore only 66% ($648/$987 =66%).
Assuming the option buyer would only exercise if the stock reaches > $16.38 (to break even on their call debit), Tynan’s profit could in practice go up to 130% = [($16.38-$9.87)*100+$638]/$987

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By: Cman https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8226 Sat, 05 Feb 2022 03:37:08 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8226 I think your math is a bit off…that is a 185% profit, not a 285% profit.

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By: Dustin https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8158 Thu, 03 Feb 2022 03:46:18 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8158 I think the missing piece is that the market is ruthlessly forward looking. At the end of 18 months, if it looked like NCLH was heading towards bankruptcy (or they diluted heavily to raise cash, etc.), the value of the shares would be well below your $3.49 breakeven even if the company was not imminently going bankrupt.

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By: Tynan https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8152 Wed, 02 Feb 2022 18:10:58 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8152 In reply to Denny.

In this particular case I would have bet more if I could have, but didn’t have cash available for it. I probably would have bet 1/3 of net worth on it if I could have, though it’s also hard to really say in retrospect. In reality I think I bet less than 10%.

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By: Denny https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8137 Wed, 02 Feb 2022 01:16:31 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8137 Congrats on the trade Tynan. As Adam wrote, good to know when you don’t know everything; even better when you have a methodology to evaluate a decision with incomplete information.

If I can ask: on a relative/percentage basis, how did this “all in” trade compare to your total assets (less debt). I think contextualizing this trade a bit for the audience might help and I’m certainly curious. While I’m sure it was a big bet, it’s worth noting whether or not you ‘risked the farm’ so to speak.

Thanks as always dude!

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By: Nate https://algorix.top/stocktrade/#comment-8120 Tue, 01 Feb 2022 16:13:33 +0000 https://algorix.top/?p=3620#comment-8120 In reply to Nate.

Specifically: https://algorix.top/weeklyposting/#comment-4525

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