Well, if I’m down 80% and don’t mind, it’s probably discretionary by definition, right?

I know what I’m doing. I understand crypto at a deep level, I understand risk and EV at a very deep level, and I’m really comfortable with my position.

While it is high variance and relatively risky, to call investing in Ethereum a lottery is ignorant. You’re either offering an opinion on something that you don’t know about, or you are completely disregarding the work of many extraordinarily talented computer scientists.

I’m… baffled. Been reading your blog for years and think you’re a smart guy otherwise, but investing any non-discretionary money in crypto is very stupid. It’s basically a lottery.

It’s your money and you can do with it what you want, but yeah really wouldn’t recommend it.

Sure… that’s technically true, but “keep your money in cash” is historically a really bad strategy. My portfolio is down 9.82% vs 11.32% S&P, and of course I also made 6% on around 50% of that (almost no risk 8% vs ~2% interest), so that brings it to -6.82% vs 11.32% S&P. Really not sure what the beef is.

Because cash has been one of the performing positions in the year since you wrote it. Generally, if you took margin loans and invested them in risk assets, you got destroyed.

Regardless of whatever this investment is that’s paying you 8%, your characterization of “almost no risk” for such investments is borderline irresponsible.

Why don’t you think that’s good advice? Interest rates have gone up, so I’m now paying ~2.5%/yr, but I still make the 8%, and as I mentioned in the post I left a big enough buffer that market downturns don’t cause any sort of margin call / liquidation.

*”almost no risk”

Could be related to your “negative cash” article in 2021-07, where you said it’s “it’s now against one’s interest to hold cash”, and talked about taking margin loans against stocks and putting the money in investments that yield 8% with “no risk”.

https://algorix.top/negative/

I wouldn’t be loving this bear market if I followed that advice.